Horden Lake Economics Confirm Strong Copper Development Case
Pivotal Metals' maiden Scoping Study for the Horden Lake copper-nickel project in Québec shows a base-case post-tax NPV7 of A$920 million and 49% IRR, with a 1.3-year capital payback, though the study remains a preliminary, low-confidence estimate that is not yet sufficient to support an Ore Reserve.
- The Scoping Study is based on the July 2026 Mineral Resource Estimate of 52 Mt at 1.05% CuEq (549 kt contained CuEq metal), with approximately 30% of the Production Target's NSR derived from Inferred Mineral Resources.
- Base case economics show pre-tax NPV7 of A$1,333 million (56% IRR) and post-tax NPV7 of A$920 million (49% IRR), rising to A$1,961 million pre-tax and A$1,343 million post-tax at spot pricing.
- The project is designed as a conventional open pit, truck-and-shovel mining operation feeding a crush-grind-float plant producing copper and nickel concentrates over an initial 10-11 year mine life.
- Pre-production capital is estimated at A$411 million (net of tax credits) with a life-of-mine capital cost of A$740 million, and LoM AISC of US$1.00/lb Cu net of by-product credits.
- The Company states it requires more than A$400 million in additional funding to develop the project and has appointed a Strategic Adviser to assess funding alternatives; no binding offtake or financing agreements are in place.
- Significant upside is identified through resource conversion, deposit extensions along strike and at depth, and an undrilled conductive horizon supported by geophysics.
Post-tax NPV7 (base case)
920p.2
Post-tax IRR (base case)
49%p.2
Post-tax NPV7 (spot)
1,343p.2
Post-tax IRR (spot)
63%p.2
Payback from first ore (base case)
1.3p.2
LoM AISC (net of by-product credits)
1.00p.2
Mineral Resource Estimate
52.4 Mt @ 1.05% CuEqp.6
Pre-production capital (net)
411p.15
Total LoM net capital cost
740p.15
Funding required for development
>$400mp.1
Total production (LoM CuEq)
247p.4
The Scoping Study provides an initial, order-of-magnitude view of the potential economics of developing Horden Lake, indicating the project could generate substantial free cash flow and returns above typical development hurdle rates under both base case and spot pricing scenarios. However, given the Class 5 accuracy level and reliance in part on Inferred Mineral Resources, the results should not be solely relied upon for investment decisions, and further studies (including a Pre-Feasibility Study) and confirmation of funding are required before any development decision or Ore Reserve declaration can be made.
Production Target and Inferred Mineral Resourcesp.1
The Study is underpinned by a Production Target. The Production Target, and the forecast financial information derived from it, are based on the Project's Mineral Resource estimate (announced 7 July 2026). Over the life of the Production Target, approximately 30% of the NSR is derived from Inferred Mineral Resources. The material scheduled during the capital-payback period is comprised approximately 86% of Indicated Mineral Resources or higher. Further information is outlined in Section 4.p.1
There is a lower level of geological confidence associated with Inferred Mineral Resources than with Indicated or Measured Mineral Resources. There is no certainty that further exploration work will result in the conversion of Inferred Mineral Resources to Indicated or Measured Mineral Resources, or that the Production Target itself, or the forecast financial information derived from it, will be realised.p.1
Notwithstanding the inclusion of Inferred Mineral Resources in the Production Target, the Company considers it has reasonable grounds for disclosing the Production Target, and that the Inferred Mineral Resources are not the determining factor in the viability of the Project. Analysis has demonstrated that significant early cashflows are generated from Measured and Indicated Resources, well in excess of capital costs. There are geological grounds to expect continuity. The Inferred Mineral Resources included in the Production Target sit within the optimised pit shell, on a common contact and in close proximity to Indicated and Measured Mineral Resources. Geological continuity is good and consistent with the deposit style and by the geophysical response that defines the mineralised system. The Competent Person considers there are reasonable grounds to expect that a material proportion of the Inferred Mineral Resources could be upgraded with additional infill drilling, of which the Company has plans to undertake.p.1
Forward-looking statements and fundingp.1
Pivotal has concluded that it has a reasonable basis for providing the forward-looking statements included in this announcement. While there is no certainty as to funding, Pivotal believes that it has a reasonable basis to expect it will be able to fund the >$400m required for development of the Project. There is no certainty that the Company will be able to source this funding as and when required. Typical project financing would include equity, debt or a project level transaction. It is possible that such funding may only be available on terms that may be dilutive to or otherwise affect the value of Pivotal's existing shares.p.1
Scoping Study Confirms Strong Copper Development Potential of Horden Lakep.2
Financials — Base Pricing vs Spot Pricing
p.2| Financials | Base Pricing | Spot Pricing |
|---|---|---|
| Production (kt CuEq/annum) | 29.1 | 28.1 |
| Cu Price (USD/lb) | 5.50 | 6.78 |
| Net revenue (AUD M, LoM) | 4,434 | 5,278 |
| Pre-tax NPV7 (AUD M) | 1,333 | 1,961 |
| Pre-tax IRR (%) | 56% | 75% |
| Post-tax NPV7 (AUD M) | 920 | 1,343 |
| Post-tax IRR (%) | 49% | 63% |
| Payback from first ore (years) | 1.3 | 1.0 |
| LoM AISC (USD/lb Cu, net of byproduct credits) | 1.00 | 0.71 |
- Pre‑tax NPV₇ of approximately A$1,333M and IRR of 56% (A$1,961M / 75% @ spot)
- Post‑tax NPV₇ of approximately A$920M and IRR of 49% (A$1,343M / 63% @ spot)
- Capital payback in 1.3 years from first ore (1.0 year at spot)
- Very low cost: AISC of US$1.00/lb Cu with high by-product credit contribution (US$2.58/lb CuEq)
- 2.2x post-tax NPV to Capex ratio (3.3x at spot)
- 29kt CuEq average production is a compelling mid-scale copper development opportunity
- Low capital intensity US$14,127/t Cu (US$9,261/t CuEq), vs global average of US$22,359/t Cu
- Tier-1 Québec enhances strategic appeal for critical metals resilience and associated capital pools
- Over A$1b precious & PGM revenues provides financing options and a cyclical hedge
- Conventional project, utilising bulk open pit and flotation technology
- Clean concentrates with high by-product credits provides off-take flexibility
- Québec is a mining jurisdiction with access to established workforce and infrastructure
- Clear permitting pathway, with no major development impediments identified.
- Mine plan constrained to 30% inferred – production growth potential through resource conversion
- Deposit is open in multiple directions, with only 8 holes below 300m, focusing on only 30% of deposit strike. Additional drilling planned.
- Large conductive horizon undrilled - geophysics strongly supports deposit extensions
Ivan Fairhall, Pivotal's Managing Director, commented: 'This Scoping Study establishes Horden Lake as a high-value copper development project. The Study outlines a post-tax NPV7 of A$920 million and a 49% IRR at base case pricing, underpinned by a simple project configuration, low capital intensity and substantial by-product credits. Horden Lake is advancing into a strong copper market. At spot prices post tax NPV7 increases to A$1,343 million and 63% IRR. This is a milestone for Pivotal. Horden Lake stands as a simple, low-cost copper project with robust returns in a Tier-1 jurisdiction, at a time when the market needs new supply. We are actively pursuing opportunities to deliver this value to shareholders.'p.3
Pivotal Metals Limited (ASX:PVT) ('Pivotal' or the 'Company') is pleased to announce its maiden Scoping Study at its Horden Lake Cu-Ni-Au-Ag Project in Québec, Canada (the 'Project' or the 'Property'). The Scoping Study is a low level technical and economic assessment (-30% to +50%), in line with AACE Class 5 estimating guidelines.p.3
The Scoping Study confirms that the Horden Lake Project has the potential to be a high-margin, copper dominant mining and processing operation, with substantial growth opportunities. The 'open pit only' scenario is based on the July 2026 Mineral Resource Estimate (MRE) of 549kt copper equivalent (CuEq) 52 Mt @ 1.05% CuEq (Table 2). The Production Target has been constrained to a subset of the open pit component of the MRE, and excludes any of the 'Out of Pit' MRE that could eventually contribute to an additional underground mine, subject to further drilling.p.3
All outcomes are presented on a 100% basis, in line with Pivotal's ownership of Horden Lake. Unless otherwise noted, figures are denoted in Australian Dollars. Figures are reported on a real basis, with no allowances for inflation.p.3
1. Highlight Study Outcomesp.4
The Scoping Study confirms that the Horden Lake Project has the potential to be a simple, high-margin, copper dominant mining and processing operation, with substantial growth opportunities. The project delivers total production of 247 kt CuEq over an initial 10-year project life at an All In Sustaining Cost (AISC) of approximately US$1.00/lb net of by-product credits (NoPBC).p.4
Table 1: Summary Project Metrics
p.4| Parameter | Unit | LOM Total | Average (y 1-8) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Material Mined | Mt | 303 | 37.3 |
| Total Ore Mined | Mt | 34 | 4.2 |
| Total Ore Processed | Mt | 34 | 3.5 |
| Grade Processed | % Cu Eq | 0.90% | 1.02% |
| Copper Equiv Payable | kt Cu Eq | 247 | 29.1 |
| Copper Payable | kt Cu | 160 | 19.1 |
| Unit AISC (NoPBC) | USD/lb Cu | 1.00 | 0.97 |
| Copper Price | US$/lb | 5.50 | 5.50 |
| Net Revenue | AUD M | 4,434 | 522 |
| Operating Costs | AUD M | (1,677) | (193) |
| EBITDA | AUD M | 2,757 | 330 |
| Pre-Production Capital | AUD M | (428) | - |
| Sustaining Capex | AUD M | (355) | (36) |
| Tax Paid | AUD M | (604) | (73) |
| Free Cash Flow | AUD M | 1,369 | 199 |
Economic Outcome
p.4| Economic Outcome | Base Case | Spot |
|---|---|---|
| Project Pre-Tax NPV (AUD M) | 1,333 | 1,961 |
| Project Pre-Tax IRR (%) | 56% | 75% |
| Project After-Tax NPV (AUD M) | 920 | 1,343 |
| Project After-Tax IRR (%) | 49% | 63% |
| After-Tax Payback (post first prod) (years) | 1.3 | 1.0 |
| NPV / Pre-Production Capital (x) | 2.2x | 3.3x |
Bar and line chart showing life of mine production physicals: annual copper concentrate and nickel concentrate (CuEq) production in kt for Years 1-10 (37, 31, 30, 25, 26, 29, 27, 28, 9, 5 kt) alongside AISC (NoBPC) values per year ranging from $1.12 in Year 1 down to negative $0.34 in Year 8 and rising to $2.09 in Year 10.
Strategic Importancep.5
Scale of relevance. 29 kt CuEq production scale makes the project strategically relevant as a copper growth opportunity, with low capital intensity and financeable total capital cost differentiating it from large-scale porphyry style projects.p.5
Low-cost operating base underpinned by existing infrastructure, including highway access, connection to low-cost low-carbon grid hydropower, and an established skilled drive-in drive-out workforce.p.5
A market in structural deficit. Independent forecasters point to a material refined copper deficit through 2030 and beyond against thin exchange inventories, with demand drivers including electrification, AI-related power demand and EV penetration.p.5
Sector M&A signals the re-rating pathway, tier-one jurisdiction characteristics, and critical-minerals policy tailwinds, with copper, nickel, cobalt and PGMs (78% of Horden Lake NSR) designated critical minerals under Québec's 2025–2031 Strategy and Canada's federal Critical Minerals Strategy.p.5
2. Project Locationp.5
The Horden Lake Deposit is located approximately 130 km north of the town of Matagami in Township 1408, James Bay District, Québec, approximately 10 km west of kilometre 200 on Route 109 (James Bay Highway). The project consists of a 1,032 Ha claim package, 100% owned by Pivotal Metals wholly owned subsidiary, 9426 9198 Québec Inc., on crown land ('terres du domaine de l'État').p.5
Québec is a tier-1 global mining jurisdiction, with 22 operating mines, a highly skilled workforce and sophisticated contracting market. Québec is also home to Canada's only copper smelter (Horne, Glencore) and copper refinery (CCR, Glencore); Canada's only nickel smelters are just over the border in Ontario (Sudbury, Vale & Glencore).p.5
Regional map of Québec showing the location of the Horden Lake Project and Belleterre Projects relative to nearby mines, smelters, hydroelectric plants, and towns including Matagami, Val d'Or, Rouyn Noranda, Chibougamau, Sudbury and Ottawa/Montreal.
3. Geology & Mineral Resourcesp.6
The Scoping Study is based solely on the MRE released on 7 July 2026, reported in accordance with the JORC Code (2012). The total MRE is 52 Mt at 1.05% copper-equivalent (CuEq), for 549 kt of contained CuEq metal. Copper is overwhelmingly the dominant metal in the Resource (292 kt contained Cu metal), of which 88% falls into a pit-constrained resource.p.6
3D geological model of the Horden Lake deposit viewed looking east, showing a 2,800m long mineralised body with an open pit MRE of 46mt at $25/t cut-off and an underground MRE of 7mt at $65/t cut-off, illustrated by teal and green shading.
Table 2: Horden Lake 2026 Mineral Resource Estimate Statement
p.6| Category | Tonnes Mt | CuEq % | Cu % | Ni % | 3E g/t | Ag g/t | Co ppm | CuEq kt | Cu kt | Ni kt | 3E koz | Ag koz | Co t |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Open Pit* | 45.5 | 1.07 | 0.56 | 0.17 | 0.34 | 10.5 | 134 | 485 | 257 | 79 | 494 | 15,336 | 6,121 |
| Underground^ | 6.9 | 0.93 | 0.51 | 0.18 | 0.25 | 8.5 | 130 | 64 | 35 | 12 | 55 | 1,872 | 898 |
| Total | 52.4 | 1.05 | 0.56 | 0.17 | 0.33 | 10.2 | 134 | 549 | 292 | 91 | 549 | 17,208 | 7,019 |
| M&I | 24.3 | 1.17 | 0.67 | 0.18 | 0.34 | 9.2 | 143 | 283 | 163 | 45 | 262 | 7,175 | 3,478 |
| Inferred | 28.1 | 0.95 | 0.46 | 0.16 | 0.32 | 11.1 | 126 | 266 | 129 | 46 | 288 | 10,033 | 3,540 |
| Total (classification) | 52.4 | 1.05 | 0.56 | 0.17 | 0.33 | 10.2 | 134 | 549 | 292 | 91 | 549 | 17,208 | 7,019 |
The MRE is contained within a mineralised envelope that is approximately 2,750 m long (northeast) and vertically about 200 m deep in the north, 600 m deep in the central area, and about 300 m deep in the south. The deposit dips at 45-55⁰ to the NW, and is open to the north, south, and at depth.p.6
The Horden Lake Deposit is an accumulation of both primary and remobilised magmatic sulphide, predominantly pyrrhotite and chalcopyrite, remobilised along a gabbro footwall contact with metasedimentary rocks. The Contact Zone corridor extends for at least 15 km with known sulphide mineralisation identified in historical work at periodic intervals.p.6
There is significant upside potential to the deposit. The mineralisation is known to be highly conductive, with recent electromagnetic (EM) surveys (Refer ASX announcement 12 February 2025 'Major Conductions Show Game-Changing Scale Potential'), having defined an extensive matrix of interconnecting conductors that mimic the 'Horden Lake signature', strongly implying extensive down plunge and along strike extensions of resources.p.7
4. Mining and Production Targetp.7
The Production Target is based on a single open pit, mined by conventional truck‑and‑shovel methods and processed through a central plant. Scoping level mine planning was completed by Moose Mountain Technical Services (MMTS).p.7
The mine plan delivers 34 Mt of mill feed and 269 Mt of waste over an 11‑year period, equating to a life‑of‑mine strip ratio of 7.9:1 (waste to mill feed), for 311.4 Mt moved in total (including 8.3 Mt stockpile rehandling).p.7
Stacked bar and line chart of material moved (Mt) by year showing ore mined, stockpile reclaimed, stockpile mined and waste, with a CuEq ROM grade line ranging from 1.28% in Year 1 down to 0.31% in Year 10.
3D model looking east showing the mine plan pit shell (teal) constrained within the broader 2026 mineral resource envelope, with economic and regulatory constraints limiting the extent of the Production Target.
Pit limits were established through Lerchs‑Grossmann optimisation on the July 2026 block model, with a series of price‑factor revenue shells run to select the ultimate pit. An undiscounted cash flow was generated for each nested shell using economic parameters including a copper price of US$5.50/lb, a USD:CAD rate of 0.75, mining costs of C$4.00/t and processing and G&A costs of C$20.50/t milled.p.8
Table 3: LoM mine schedule summary
p.8| Feed | Units | LoM |
|---|---|---|
| Ore Mined | Mt | 34.0 |
| Waste Mined | Mt | 269 |
| Rehandle | Mt | 8.4 |
| Production Rate | Mt/a | 3.5 |
| Life of Mine | years | 9.7 |
| Cu grade | % | 0.54 |
| Ni grade | % | 0.16 |
| Au grade | g/t | 0.16 |
| Ag grade | g/t | 9.34 |
| Pd grade | g/t | 0.13 |
| Pt grade | g/t | 0.04 |
| Co grade | ppm | 118 |
The revenue factor 80% shell was selected for mine planning, developed into three mineable phases designed so that higher‑grade, lower‑strip material is accessed first. Overall pit slopes have been set to 50° based on MMTS's knowledge of the district.p.8
Plan view images of three contoured mining phases at Horden Lake, shown in purple, pink and teal, illustrating progressively larger pit outlines used to sequence the mine schedule.
The mining fleet is owner‑operated on standard lease-to-own terms, comprising a 22m³ hydraulic shovel loading mill feed and two 34m³ shovels loading waste, with three 139t mill‑feed haul trucks and twelve 229t waste haul trucks, supported by five rotary production drills, graders, dozers and ancillary equipment.p.9
Contribution of inferred mineral resourcesp.9
The life of mine NSR contribution of inferred material has been limited to 30%. There is a low level of geological confidence associated with inferred mineral resources and there is no certainty that further exploration work will result in the determination of indicated mineral resources or that the production target itself will be realised.p.9
Stacked bar chart of NSR (C$M) by operating year showing measured, indicated and inferred contributions, with a marker indicating post-tax payback at 1.3 years.
In the Competent Person's opinion, the inclusion of inferred resources is not deemed a determining factor in project viability. Post tax pay-back is achieved ~1.3 years from commencement of operation, during which time ~14% of the NSR is attributable to inferred mineralisation. Over the first 4 years, cumulative inferred NSR contribution is 23% of total NSR.p.9
5. Metallurgy & Processingp.9
The Horden Lake concentrator has been designed as a conventional crush–grind–float plant treating 3.5 Mtpa of run-of-mine ore, producing a copper flotation concentrate and a nickel flotation concentrate, with no novel or unproven process steps.p.9
Process flow diagram of the Horden Lake plant from ROM ore delivery through crushing, SAG/ball milling, bulk copper-nickel rougher flotation, regrind, and separate copper and nickel cleaner circuits to thickening and filtration for concentrate production and tailings disposal.
Pivotal has completed two significant metallurgical programs, extending the Horden Lake metallurgical database to 17 samples, spanning varying grades and testing recovery relationships, with two locked cycle tests (LCT) completed to inform continuous process modelling (ASX Announcement 1 September 2026 'Higher Copper Recoveries for Horden Lake').p.10
Table 4: Life of Mine average recoveries
p.11| Metal | LoM Feed Grade | Recovery to Cu conc | Recovery to Ni conc | Total Recovery |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cu | 0.54 % | 88% | 4% | 92% |
| Ni | 0.16 % | 0% | 49% | 49% |
| Au | 0.16 g/t | 60% | 4% | 64% |
| Ag | 9.34 g/t | 60% | 15% | 75% |
| Pd | 0.13 g/t | 43% | 18% | 60% |
| Pt | 0.04 g/t | 17% | 12% | 28% |
| Co | 118 ppm | 0% | 44% | 44% |
Table 5: Payable metal production summary
p.11| Product | LoM | Year 1-8 ave |
|---|---|---|
| Cu (kt) | 160 | 19.1 |
| Ni (kt) | 20 | 2.2 |
| Au (koz) | 83 | 9.6 |
| Ag (koz) | 5,875 | 688 |
| Pd (koz) | 29 | 3.2 |
| Pt (koz) | 3.1 | 0.4 |
| Co (kt) | 1.0 | 0.1 |
| CuEq (kt) | 247 | 29.1 |
Bar and line chart showing annual payable metal units for Cu, Ni, Au, Ag, Pd, Pt, Co and CuEq across Years 1-10, with copper and CuEq peaking in early years and declining sharply in Years 9-10.
Two pie charts: one showing NSR by metal (Copper 65%, Nickel 10%, Gold 10%, Silver 11%, PGM 1.4%, Cobalt 1.5%) and one showing NSR by concentrate (Copper 83%, Nickel 17%).
The copper concentrate contains 83% of the production NSR. The most recent locked cycle test produced a concentrate grading 25.7% Cu; with 24% Cu design grade adopted for the base case. The nickel concentrate contains approximately 17% of the NSR, with production grade modelled at 10% Ni.p.12
Aerial-style rendering of the proposed Horden Lake process plant site layout showing the primary crusher, grinding and regrind circuits, process plant building, admin offices and laboratory, workshops, reagents storage, tailings thickener, water tanks, stockpile and emergency pond.
6. Infrastructurep.13
Tailings Storagep.13
A scoping-level cost estimate for the Project's tailings storage facility (TSF) has been completed by Knight Piésold. The TSF is configured as an integrated facility, with the tailing basin centred within the final waste rock dump to provide buttressing during operations and post-closure.p.13
Cross-sectional engineering diagram of the tailings storage facility showing waste dump, main embankments, divider wall, tailings and decant tailings areas with slope ratios labelled 2:1 and 1:150.
Powerp.13
Site electrical demand is estimated at approximately 15 MW, dominated by the process plant. A 42 km single-pole 138 kV overhead transmission spur line to site will connect to an existing 66 kV line designed for future upgrade to 138 kV, with low-cost grid power at CAD 0.05/kWh.p.13
Campp.13
A permanent 200-person accommodation camp is proposed to support a drive-in workforce operating on a rotating roster, constructed and operated by a third-party specialist camp provider.p.13
Ancillaryp.14
- Upgrade of the 11km existing project access road from the James Bay Highway, plus internal road network.
- Heavy- and light-vehicle and auxiliary workshops.
- Reagent storage and make-up facilities for both solid and liquid reagents.
- Buildings including warehousing, administration offices, control room, laboratory, core storage, and access-control gate house.
- A bulk diesel receipt, storage, and refuelling station.
- Site services including water systems, compressed air, heating, sewage treatment, drainage, communications, process control, CCTV, access control and emergency notification.
Photograph of the James Bay 'Billy Diamond' Highway, a paved two-lane road running through a snow-covered boreal forest landscape, with a single vehicle visible on the road.
7. Capital & Operating Costsp.15
The pre-production capital cost totals A$411m, and a life of mine capital cost of $740m. The life of mine operating costs total A$49/t ROM, including product transport.p.15
Table 6: Capital cost summary
p.15| Area | Pre-Production AUDm | Sustaining AUDm | Total LoM AUDm | Ref |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mining Equipment and Facilities | 47 | 206 | 253 | MMTS |
| Mining Pre-strip | 14 | - | 14 | MMTS |
| Process Plant | 174 | - | 174 | Zenito |
| Infrastructure | 12 | - | 12 | Zenito |
| Tailings & Waste Rock | 19 | 89 | 108 | KPiesold |
| Closure | - | 38 | 38 | KP + PVT |
| Total Direct Costs | 266 | 334 | 599 | |
| Project Delivery | 59 | - | 59 | Zenito |
| Owners Costs | 28 | - | 28 | PVT |
| Total Indirect Costs | 88 | - | 88 | |
| Contingency | 75 | 38 | 113 | Z/KP/PVT |
| Total Capital Cost | 428 | 372 | 800 | |
| CSM ITC Tax Credit* | (17) | (26) | (44) | PVT |
| Salvage Value | - | (16) | (16) | PVT |
| Total Net Capital Costs | 411 | 329 | 740 |
Table 7: Operating costs summary
p.15| Operating Costs & Margins | LoM AUDm | AUD/t ROM LoM | Ref |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mining* | 906 | 26.6 | MMTS |
| Processing | 463 | 13.6 | Zenito |
| G&A | 227 | 6.7 | PVT |
| Concentrate transport | 81 | 2.4 | PVT |
| Total operating costs | 1,677 | 49.3 |
Table 8: Unit costs summary
p.15| Unit Costs — payable CuEq basis | Units | LoM Unit cost |
|---|---|---|
| Mining | US$ / lb CuEq | $1.09 |
| Processing | US$ / lb CuEq | $0.56 |
| Royalties | US$ / lb CuEq | $0.11 |
| G&A | US$ / lb CuEq | $0.27 |
| Transport, TC/RC | US$ / lb CuEq | $0.15 |
| C1 cash cost (co-product, CuEq) | US$ / lb CuEq | $2.18 |
| Sustaining capital | US$ / lb CuEq | $0.40 |
| AISC (co-product) | US$ / lb CuEq | $2.58 |
| AISC (net of by-product credits) | US$ / lb Cu | $1.00 |
The Project's substantial by-product content is a key driver of its low unit operating cost. Cost efficiency in mining is achieved through utilising bulk tonnage open pit mining. Future studies will evaluate a phased development schedule to reduce up front capital expenditures.p.16
8. Economic Evaluationp.16
Bar and line chart of annual cash flow (AUD M real) from Year -1 to Year 11 showing EBITDA, development capex, sustaining capex and tax paid bars, alongside a cumulative free cash flow line reaching approximately 1,300 AUD M by Year 8.
Table 9: Key returns metrics and assumptions
p.16| Cash Flow, Valuation & Returns | Base | Spot |
|---|---|---|
| Pre-tax free cash flow (inc. capex) (AUD M) | 1,973 | 2,818 |
| Post-tax free cash flow (inc. capex) (AUD M) | 1,369 | 1,939 |
| Pre-tax NPV7 (ungeared) (AUD M) | 1,333 | 1,961 |
| Pre-tax IRR (%) | 56% | 75.1% |
| Post-tax NPV7 (ungeared) (AUD M) | 920 | 1,343 |
| Post-tax IRR (%) | 49% | 63% |
| Post-tax NPV / pre-production capital (x) | 2.2x | 3.3x |
| Pre-tax payback — from first production (years) | 1.2 | 0.9 |
| Post-tax payback — from first production (years) | 1.3 | 1.0 |
| Copper (USD/lb) | 5.50 | 6.78 |
| Nickel (USD/lb) | 7.25 | 7.40 |
| Gold (USD/oz) | 3,775 | 4,365 |
Key Assumptions (continued)
p.17| Assumption | Value |
|---|---|
| Silver (USD/oz) | 58 / 67 |
| Platinum (USD/oz) | 1,600 / 1,782 |
| Palladium (USD/oz) | 1,255 / 1,300 |
| Cobalt (US$/lb) | 20 / 20 |
| Discount rate | 7.0% |
| Corporate tax rate | 26.5% |
| Provincial tax | Québec minimum mining tax regime |
| FX rate (CAD/AUD) | 0.91x |
| FX rate (USD/CAD) | 0.72x |
Tornado chart showing pre-tax NPV7 sensitivity (AUD M) to copper price (-15%/+15%), other metals pricing (-15%/+15%), discount rate (9%/5%), operating cost (+10%/-10%) and construction capex (+20%/-20%), with base case NPV7 of 1,333 and values ranging from 1,009 to 1,961.
Taxation and Government Incentivesp.17
The Project is subject to federal corporate income tax (15%), Québec provincial corporate income tax (11.5%), and Québec mining tax, assessed as the greater of a progressive rate of 16% to 28% on annual profit, or a minimum mining tax of 1% on the first C$80 million and 4% on the remainder of mine-mouth output value.p.17
Productivity Mega Deductionp.17
The Company has adjusted its depreciation assumptions to account for the recently announced 'Productivity Mega Deduction', announced by the Canadian federal government on 15 September 2026, which proposes to permanently allow immediate expensing (a 100% first-year write-off) of a broad range of depreciable property, expanding eligibility from an estimated approx. 15% to around two-thirds of capital investment.p.17
Clean Technology Manufacturing Investment Tax Creditp.17
The Company has undertaken a preliminary assessment of the Clean Technology Manufacturing Investment Tax Credit (CTM-ITC) scheme, providing a refundable tax credit of up to 30% of eligible new depreciable property. It is assumed approximately 30% of the Project's estimated pre-production capital may qualify, resulting in a potential refundable investment tax credit of approximately A$44 million, incorporated into the scoping study cash flow model.p.18
9. Concentrate Marketing & Transportp.18
Revenues from the project are derived in the form of a copper concentrate and a nickel concentrate. Feedback from concentrate trading groups has confirmed that the concentrates are clean, widely marketable and globally competitive to North American, European and Asian smelters.p.18
Table 10: Smelter terms
p.18| Cu Con | Payability | Adjustment | RC | Ni Con | Payability | Adjustment | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cu | 96.65% | Min 1% | US$ 0.04/lb | Cu | 60% | ||
| Ni | 0% | Ni | 80% | ||||
| Au | 96% | Limit 0.8g/t | US$ 4.5/oz | Au | 60% | ||
| Ag | 95% | Limit 30g/t | US$ 0.4/oz | Ag | 60% | ||
| Pd | 90% | Limit 2g/t | US$ 24/oz | Pd | 60% | ||
| Pt | 90% | Limit 1.5g/t | US$ 30/oz | Pt | 60% | ||
| Co | 0% | Co | 60% | ||||
| Treatment | US$ 40/t conc | Treatment | Included in payability |
No penalty elements of materiality have been identified. As at the date of this announcement, the Company has no binding offtake arrangement in place.p.18
Logisticsp.18
The project is located 300km north of Canada's only copper smelter (Horne, Glencore) and 540km NNE of Canada's only nickel smelters (Sudbury, Glencore & Copper Cliff, Vale), connected via paved highway and an intermodal rail head 200km by highway (Matagami). The Matagami Transshipment Hub has recently undergone a government funded C$9m transshipment yard infrastructure upgrade project.p.18
Map showing indicative logistics routes from Horden Lake south via highway and rail through Matagami, Amos, Rouyn-Noranda (copper smelter) and Sudbury (nickel smelter), with connections to deep-water ports at Quebec-St. Lawrence and Prince Rupert, British Columbia.
10. ESG & Permittingp.19
The Horden Lake project is located in the Eeyou Istchee Baie-James territory of Nord-du-Québec, in a remote and uninhabited boreal setting. The property sits on Category III land under the James Bay & Northern Québec Agreement (JBNQA, 1975), which is Québec public land open to all users where mineral tenure, exploration and development are expressly contemplated.p.19
Development would be assessed under the provincial COMEV and COMEX environmental and social impact review processes, generally requiring 2 summer-season baseline studies prior to permit application, and regulatory review and assessment time of 12-24 months.p.19
The nearest permanent communities are Waskaganish, 86km NW (120km by road), and Nemiscau 143km NE. The nearest town is Matagami, 130km S.p.19
Woodland (boreal) caribou is recognised as an important consideration, as the project lies within the range of the Nottaway herd in a sector used for calving, and in proximity to the corridor connecting the Nottaway and Assinica herds.p.20
11. Development Pathwayp.20
Pivotal intends to advance engineering and permitting activities in an integrated fashion. The Company expects to complete 2 summer baseline seasons and a concurrent Feasibility Study before applying for its COMEX ESIA review and approval, review period 12-24 months, thereafter regional permits to commence over 3-9 months. The Company intends to advance detailed designs and long lead procurement during its approvals process to accelerate the construction timeline to within 18 months of FID (post approvals).p.20
12. Exploration & Growth Upsidep.20
Beyond the mine plan, the Deposit is constrained by a lack of drilling rather than by geology. It extends more than 2,800m along strike and is open along its entire strike length and at depth, with the deepest intersection at approximately 540m vertical. Only eight holes have penetrated the Contact Zone below 300m vertical, and every hole intersecting that zone has encountered mineralisation.p.20
The 2026 MRE growth of 40% in in-pit contained CuEq was delivered by drilling a small portion of this conductive horizon, validating the targeting model and leaving a pipeline of untested priority targets.p.20
Long section view of the Horden Lake deposit looking southeast, showing the mine shell (teal) extracting a subset of the total mineral resource, with overlaid shadow polygons representing an undrilled conductive geophysical horizon extending beyond the current resource envelope.
13. Funding & Strategic Pathwayp.21
Significant additional funding (>A$400m) is needed to realise the outcomes of this study. Pivotal views the funding outlook of the project favourably, supported by favourable project characteristics.p.21
- High returns on capital above standard project-finance and equity hurdle rates for new copper development.
- Low capital intensity at US$14,127/t Cu (US$9,261/t CuEq), compared to a global average of US$22,359/t Cu.
- Modest absolute capital, with pre-production capital well below the multi-billion-dollar threshold for low-grade porphyry projects.
- Metals streaming potential, referencing a US$300 million gold and silver stream agreed 1 April 2026 between KGL Resources (ASX:KGL) and Wheaton Precious Metals (TSX:WPM) over the Jervois Copper Project.
- Copper leverage amid forecast supply weakness and a structural refined-metal deficit through to 2030 and beyond.
- Recent M&A validating strategic value of pre-development mid-scale copper projects, citing Cygnus Metals, Carnaby Resources, Hammer Metals, New World Copper, and the Havilah/Mutaroo JV.
- 100% ownership of the Project, free of joint-venture partners, back-in rights or third-party approval requirements.
- Unencumbered offtake, with no concentrate offtake currently pre-committed.
The Company has appointed a Strategic Adviser to guide and assess funding alternatives to advance the development of the Horden Lake project. There is no certainty that Pivotal Metals will be able to secure the funding solution as and when required.p.22
14. Results and Conclusionsp.22
The Scoping Study has demonstrated that the Horden Lake Project has the potential to support a technically straightforward, economically robust open pit copper development, subject to the assumptions, risks and cautionary statements set out in this announcement. On the basis of these outcomes, the Company considers that the Project warrants progression to the next stage of evaluation, including infill drilling, further optimisation and advanced technical and economic studies.p.22
15. Future Workp.22
- Inferred mineral resource conversion: increasing confidence in the already defined mineral endowment which could not be included in this economic study.
- Continued resource growth by leveraging clear opportunities to extend the deposit.
- Optimisation opportunities including staged development and integrated project scheduling.
- Pre-feasibility engineering programs.
- Environmental baseline and associated permitting activities.
- Continued stakeholder engagement.
- Evaluating strategic opportunities given the lack of mid-scale pre-development copper opportunities in global Tier-1 mining jurisdictions.
16. Additional Informationp.23
Table 11: ROM production schedule
p.23| Parameter | LoM | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | Year 6 | Year 7 | Year 8 | Year 9 | Year 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ROM (kt) | 34,032 | 3,500 | 3,500 | 3,500 | 3,500 | 3,500 | 3,500 | 3,500 | 3,500 | 3,500 | 2,532 |
| Cu (%) | 0.54% | 0.81% | 0.64% | 0.66% | 0.51% | 0.50% | 0.65% | 0.59% | 0.64% | 0.19% | 0.14% |
| Ni (%) | 0.16% | 0.17% | 0.18% | 0.19% | 0.14% | 0.17% | 0.18% | 0.18% | 0.18% | 0.07% | 0.07% |
| Au (g/t) | 0.16 | 0.28 | 0.23 | 0.15 | 0.20 | 0.17 | 0.12 | 0.13 | 0.13 | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| Ag (g/t) | 9.34 | 10.71 | 11.58 | 11.16 | 10.47 | 12.28 | 9.79 | 8.65 | 9.25 | 4.29 | 3.59 |
| Pd (g/t) | 0.13 | 0.15 | 0.16 | 0.16 | 0.12 | 0.14 | 0.14 | 0.13 | 0.15 | 0.07 | 0.08 |
| Pt (g/t) | 0.04 | 0.05 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| Co (%) | 0.012% | 0.011% | 0.012% | 0.014% | 0.011% | 0.012% | 0.016% | 0.015% | 0.013% | 0.007% | 0.006% |
| CuEq (%) | 0.90% | 1.28% | 1.09% | 1.06% | 0.88% | 0.88% | 1.02% | 0.96% | 1.00% | 0.35% | 0.31% |
Table 12: Metal equivalent parameters
p.23| Metal | Unit | Price | Recovery | Sales Cost | ME Factor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Copper | USD/t | 11,000 | 90% | 1,100 | 1.00 |
| Nickel | USD/t | 17,500 | 55% | 1,750 | 0.97 |
| Gold | USD/oz | 4,000 | 60% | 400 | 0.78 |
| Palladium | USD/oz | 1,500 | 55% | 150 | 0.27 |
| Platinum | USD/oz | 1,750 | 40% | 175 | 0.23 |
| Silver | USD/oz | 60 | 65% | 6 | 0.013 |
| Cobalt | USD/t | 45,000 | 40% | 4,500 | 0.0002 |
Copper equivalent is calculated based on the formula: CuEq% = Cu% + Ni% * 0.97 + Au ppm * 0.78 + Pd ppm * 0.27 + Pt ppm * 0.23 + Ag ppm * 0.0013 + Co ppm * 0.0002. Production based metal equivalents are calculated as follows: USD$ NSR / copper price.p.24
About Pivotal Metalsp.25
Pivotal Metals Limited (ASX:PVT) is an explorer and developer of world-class critical mineral projects. Pivotal holds the recently acquired flagship Horden Lake property, which contains a Mineral Resource Estimate of 52 Mt @ 1.05% CuEq, reported in accordance with the JORC Code (2012), comprising copper, nickel, gold, silver, palladium, platinum and cobalt. Horden Lake is complemented by a battery metals exploration portfolio in Canada located within the prolific Belleterre-Angliers Greenstone Belt comprised of the Midrim, Laforce, Alotta and Lorraine high-grade nickel copper PGM sulphide projects in Québec.p.25
JORC Code, 2012 Edition – Table 4p.26
This document has been prepared in accordance with the JORC Code (2012) and the ASX Listing Rules. All material assumptions on which the Scoping Study production target and projected financial information have been included in this release and disclosed in the table below. No Ore reserve has declared.p.26
Section 4 Estimation and Reporting of Ore Reserves — Mineral Resource estimate for conversion to Ore Reserves
p.26| Criteria | Commentary |
|---|---|
| Mineral Resource estimate for conversion to Ore Reserves | No Ore Reserves have been estimated or declared as part of the Horden Lake Scoping Study. The Scoping Study and Production Target are based on the Horden Lake Mineral Resource Estimate (MRE) released to the ASX on 7 July 2026, prepared by Caracle Creek International Consulting Inc. and its sub-consultant Atticus Geoscience Consulting S.A.C., with an effective date of 15 June 2026. The MRE totals 52.4 Mt at 1.05% CuEq for 549 kt of contained CuEq, comprising 24.3 Mt at 1.17% CuEq Measured and Indicated and 28.1 Mt at 0.95% CuEq Inferred. |
| Site visits | The Competent Person has completed several visits to the site in the last three years, most recently March 2025. No obvious development impediments to the assumed project configuration as defined by this study were observed. |
| Study status | The type and level of study is a Scoping Study as defined in Clause 38 of the JORC Code (2012), with capital and operating cost estimates to an AACE Class 5 level of accuracy (−30% / +50%). Further evaluation work, including a Pre-Feasibility Study, is required before any Ore Reserve can be estimated. |
| Cut-off parameters | Mill feed is selected on a net smelter return (NSR) basis rather than a single-metal cut-off grade. Pit limits were determined by Lerchs-Grossmann optimisation using metal prices of US$5.50/lb Cu, US$7.75/lb Ni, US$3,800/oz Au, US$1,500/oz Pd, US$1,750/oz Pt, US$60/oz Ag and US$25/lb Co, a USD:CAD exchange rate of 0.75, mining cost of C$4.00/t and processing and G&A costs of C$20.50/t milled. The production schedule applies a breakeven economic cut-off of NSR ≥ C$20.50/t. |
JORC Table 4 (continued) — Mining, Metallurgical, Environmental, Infrastructure
p.27| Criteria | Commentary |
|---|---|
| Mining factors or assumptions | Scoping-level open pit designs, production schedules and mining capital and operating costs were developed by MMTS. Pit slopes: overall slope approximately 50°, inter-ramp angle 53°, bench face angle 61°, 8 m benches and 20 m berms every 100 m vertically. Inferred material has been limited to 30% of life-of-mine NSR, with 70% of mill feed NSR sourced from Measured and Indicated Resources. |
| Metallurgical factors or assumptions | The proposed process is a conventional sulphide flotation flowsheet designed by Zenito for 3.5 Mtpa. Metallurgical testwork database comprises 15 samples/composites; LCTs produced copper concentrates grading 22.8–25.7% Cu (82.1–90.5% of feed copper) and nickel concentrates grading 10.1–11.6% Ni (36.1–38.7% of feed nickel). |
| Environmental | An independent desktop environmental study and 2026 field survey by GCM Enviro-Synergie characterised the Project's ecological setting. Tailings are assumed high sulphur; Knight Piésold has prepared a conceptual TSF design of approximately 40 Mt with a preliminary GISTM consequence category of Extreme. |
| Infrastructure | Power will be supplied via a new 42 km, 138 kV overhead line from the Waskaganish–Nemiscau transmission line. Raw water make-up requirement estimated at approximately 0.8 Mm³ per year. Concentrates assumed trucked to Horne smelter (approximately 450 km) and Sudbury (approximately 820 km). |
JORC Table 4 (continued) — Costs, Revenue Factors, Market Assessment, Economic
p.29| Criteria | Commentary |
|---|---|
| Costs | Capital costs compiled to an AACE Class 5 level of accuracy (−30% / +50%). Contingency comprises 25% of process plant and infrastructure direct costs, 10% of mining capital, averaging 22.5% of pre-production capital. Royalties: 2% private; Québec mining tax of greater of 16%-28% profit-based tax or minimum tax of 1% on first C$80 million and 4% on remainder. |
| Revenue factors | Metal prices used for pit optimisation: Cu US$5.5/lb, Ni US$7.75/lb, Au US$3,800/oz, Ag US$60/oz, Pd US$1,500/oz, Pt US$1,750/oz, Co US$25/lb. Base case Cu/Ni/Au/Ag pricing is 10% to 22% below TD Economics September 2026 2028 average long-term forecasts of Cu US$6.18/lb, Ni US$8.05/lb, Au US$4,810/oz and Ag US$70.88/oz. |
| Market assessment | Independent forecasters point to a material structural refined copper deficit through 2030 and beyond. Copper, nickel, cobalt and PGMs (78% of Project NSR) are designated critical minerals under Québec's 2025–2031 Strategy and Canada's federal Critical Minerals Strategy. |
| Economic | A real discount rate of 7% has been applied. A refundable Clean Technology Manufacturing Investment Tax Credit of approximately A$44 million and salvage value of A$16 million are included. |
JORC Table 4 (continued) — Social, Other, Classification, Audits
p.30| Criteria | Commentary |
|---|---|
| Social | The Project is located on Category III land under the JBNQA (1975). No agreements with key stakeholders have been entered into at this stage of study; 2026 workstreams include formal engagement with regulators and Cree stakeholders. |
| Other | The Project comprises a 1,032 ha claim package held 100% by Pivotal Metals' wholly owned subsidiary, 9426 9198 Québec Inc. No binding offtake or marketing agreements are in place. No environmental or statutory approvals have yet been sought. |
| Classification | No Ore Reserves have been estimated or declared. Inferred material has been limited to 30% of life-of-mine NSR. |
| Audits or reviews | No Ore Reserves have been estimated, and no external audit of the Scoping Study has been undertaken. The TSF conceptual design has been peer reviewed by Sovad Consulting. |
Forward-Looking Statements
Inferred mineral resource conversion through additional infill drilling to increase confidence in the mineral endowment not currently included in the economic study.
Continued resource growth by leveraging opportunities to extend the deposit along strike and at depth.
Optimisation opportunities including staged development and integrated project scheduling.
Pre-feasibility engineering programs.
Environmental baseline studies and associated permitting activities, including caribou telemetry analysis and engagement with regulators and Cree stakeholders.
Continued stakeholder engagement and evaluation of strategic funding opportunities via the appointed Strategic Adviser.